We all remember how the Super Bowl ended. The 49ers had three shots to score from the five yard line, failed to do so, and lost the ball on downs. The Ravens were able to run out the clock, giving up an intentional safety along the way, and win Super Bowl XLVII 34-31.
It is tempting to think the 49ers are in good shape to win this season’s Super Bowl. They dominated the Ravens in the second half and they’ve improved both years under Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. The quarterback is an emerging star and the defense is notoriously stingy.
History, though, would beg to differ.
** Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, 28 of the 42 Super Bowl losers haven’t won a playoff game the next season. Twelve of those teams missed the postseason and 16 lost their first playoff game.
** Seven of the 46 Super Bowl losers returned to the Super Bowl the next season. They went 2-5. The two teams to win it: the 1972 Dolphins and the 1971 Cowboys.
** The last team to play in a Super Bowl the season after losing it: The 1993 Bills, who lost back-to-back big games to the Cowboys.
Injuries to quarterbacks have factored into it. Tom Brady went out for the season with a knee injury in the first regular season game after New England lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants; Donovan McNabb missed seven games, Rich Gannon nine games and Kurt Warner 10 games after the Eagles, Raiders and Rams respectively, lost Super Bowls.
There is also a lot of luck involved in getting to the Super Bowl. Teams have to negotiate a 16 game season and then win two or three playoff games against top competition, often on the road. That is difficult to repeat.
Team chemistry is also an issue with contracts often dictating that key players move on. Age can be a factor as well since Super Bowl teams tend to be experienced, and there is a thin line between experienced and old.
Off the Bench says that the 49ers are in better shape to beat the odds than most. Health is an imponderable, but quarterback Colin Kaepernick is young and that somewhat lessens the chances that he’ll get hurt. No key players have left and the one major change, kicker, is likely to be an upgrade from what was a weakness last year. Defenses tend to be more consistent than offenses, and stopping opponents was the 49ers strength. The main concern is that if Kaepernick gets hurt there is no Alex Smith waiting to step in.
On the flip side the 49ers division is getting stronger with the Rams on the rise and the Seahawks featuring an elite young quarterback. They will also play a first-place schedule which the NFL makes more difficult to promote parity.
Still, the 49ers have an elite coach in Harbaugh and a young team that has become used to winning. That formula should take them to the playoffs, and from there anything can happen. It will be a fascinating story to follow in January and February.
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