Column

If you haven’t noticed, there seems to be a movement afoot in America toward socialism. In a 2019 Harris poll, nearly half (49.6%) of adults under 40 said they would prefer living in a socialist country. The same group also favored “free” public college (67.1%) and universal health care (73.2%). Fully 75% of democrats believe America would be “better off” if it was more socialist, with about 43% of all Americans saying the same thing.

I understand that people want life to be better for everyone, but is becoming a more socialist-style nation a way to accomplish that goal? Before I go on, let’s settle on a definition of the term. Merriam-Webster defines socialism as:

1: any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods

2a: a system of society or group living in which there is no private property

b:  a system or condition of society in which the means of production are owned and controlled by the state

3: a stage of society in Marxist theory transitional between capitalism and communism and distinguished by unequal distribution of goods and pay according to work done

As far as I can tell, the basic promise of socialism is to share everything equally, where the disparity between the wealthy and the poor is eliminated. Everyone makes a “living wage” and no one goes without necessities. This all sounds very nice. Every person is guaranteed housing, health care, clean air, water, food, education, and mobility (aka, an electric car). The balance of the living wage would be needed so Americans could also afford the other “necessities” they have become accustomed to—iPhones, Pilates classes, HD TV sets, streaming music, pizza, Botox, Starbucks coffee, visits to nail salons, and of course, Amazon Prime memberships.

Bernie Sanders points to countries like Sweden as examples of this utopia. The problem is these are not socialist countries; they are hybrid nations with various levels of capitalism. True socialist countries, like Venezuela and Cuba, have economies with state-owned or controlled production and commerce. How many migrant caravans do we see invading these stellar examples of socialist Shangri-la?

Socialism generally appeals to younger people, and others, who, so far at least, seem to believe that toil, struggle, difficulty, and failure are experiences to be avoided at all costs. They pray for a “lighter load and an easier road” rather than a “stronger back.”    What they are missing is that it is only through life’s challenges that we develop the character, experience, and strength to accomplish greater tasks and goals.

The lie of socialism is that there are only so many pieces of pie in the universe to be shared, whereas the truth is, capitalism allows infinite pies to be created, limited only by one’s imagination. One only need study history to understand that most of the progress in solving the world’s greatest problems—hunger, disease, and poverty—all lie at the foot of Western capitalism, not socialism or communism.

Americans must remember that the easier road never leads forward.

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings. The inherent virtue of Socialism is the equal sharing of miseries. Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy.

—Winston Churchill

As I’m writing this, the chaos continues.  Will the Impeachment pass in the House today?  Probably.  But then what?  The chaos will continue because in my humble opinion “The Chaos” has become white noise, ever present in our society, the new norm.

I only mention the seemingly never ending saga of the impeachment because it is in some strange way a bi-product of the subject of my movie review this month.

I went to see No Safe Spaces in the theater.  I’m not usually a huge fan of documentaries because they are often designed to promote a certain perspective.  I actually expected no less from this one, yet I have to admit that I arrived with a glimmer of hope for a true unbiased vantage point.

So there is no confusion I am going to quote directly from the promo. 

The First Amendment and the very idea of free speech are under attack in America today.  A growing number of Americans don’t believe you have the right to speak your mind if what you have to say might offend someone, somewhere.  They advocate for “safe spaces” in which people won’t be offended by ideas they may find troubling.  But is that what America is about?

In No Safe Spaces comedian and podcast king Adam Carolla and radio talk show host Dennis Prager travel the country, talking to experts and advocates on the left and the right, tour college campuses, and examine their own upbringings to try to understand what is happening in America today and what free speech in this country should look (and sound) like.

As I’ve mentioned before, I consider myself a patriot.  I love my country.  It’s like a big family, some of them may do things I don’t like, but they’re still family.  I love the principles our country was founded upon and feel they are truly worth holding on to and defending.  Somewhere along the line, we have gotten off track and the divisiveness is only getting worse.  The University of California at Berkeley right here in our own back yard, has gone from honoring and defending our First Amendment of free speech to looting, pillaging, shouting and screaming and yes, violence to keep it off their campus. When did that happen?  You’ve heard the old analogy about putting the frog in the pot of cold water if you want to cook him and turn the flame on under the pot.  That’s how it happens.  That’s how one day you wake up and free speech is not free any longer.  Slowly, very slowly the pot of water heats up and cooks the frog…

I’ve got four teenage grandchildren and I didn’t see freedom of speech in our colleges and universities going away.  Is it too late?  I don’t think so.  Dennis Prager and Adam Carolla have created a film that every American should see.  I don’t care if you know their politics or like their politics.  In fact, once you see the movie you’ll understand that it goes much deeper than that.  It’s who we are as Americans.  It’s who we want to continue to be.  Owen Gleiberman wrote in Variety, ‘The most head-turning point made by No Safe Spaces is that today’s anti-free-speech radicals, who on many college campuses dominate the discourse, are going to be tomorrow’s leaders.  Now, that’s something that can keep you awake at night!  We can no longer afford to stay uninvolved while the pot of water starts to boil.  We need to bring back the art of civil discourse.  When it comes right down to it, it’s not what you say but how you say it that usually makes the difference in whether others listen.

As always, I welcome your comments at Carolyn@carolynhastings.com 

Got the January doldrums? Tired of cold weather? Feeling financially depleted? Weary of restaurant meals and fancy party food? Yearning for some quiet time at home? I think I know the answer to your dilemma. It sounds like a good day for soup.

So why not make an outrageously good, budget-friendly main course made from ingredients you may already have in your pantry? And, in deference to all the born-again dieters out there, the carbs and calories in classic onion soup gratinee are dramatically reduced by omitting the bread and gooey cheese. The soup is delicious without them, though certainly not as luxurious. (If it’s a clean-out-the-produce-drawer kind of day, feel free to add celery, carrot, and other veggies to make the soup more substantial.)

But if you are ready to fall face-first into some New Year’s decadence, sit right next to me. Converting this recipe to the more familiar flavors of French onion soup requires minimal effort for maximum flavor. I’ve added the instructions at the end of the recipe. As we say in California, bon appetit!

California Onion Soup

4 tablespoons (1/2 stick) unsalted butter, cut up

2 tablespoons California olive oil

6 medium onions (2 1/2 to 3 pounds) halved and sliced about 1/8-inch thick (about 6 cups total)

2 garlic cloves, finely chopped

Salt and freshly ground black pepper

1 tablespoon all-purpose flour

1/4 cup dry sherry, dry white wine, or brandy

4 cups beef stock, store-bought or homemade

1 cup water

Optional: 1&1/2 teaspoons chopped fresh thyme, or 1/2 teaspoon dried thyme leaves

Freshly grated Dry Jack or parmesan cheese

1. In a soup pot or other heavy-bottomed 4- to 6-quart pot, melt the butter in the oil over medium heat.
2. Stir in the onions and garlic and season with salt and pepper. Toss to coat well. Reduce the heat to low, cover, and let cook for 15 minutes, until the onions are very soft.
3. Uncover the pot and increase the heat to medium. Let cook, stirring frequently, for about 40 minutes, or until the onions are deep golden brown. Adjust the heat as needed to avoid burning.
4. Stir in the flour and continue to cook, stirring occasionally, until the flour turns golden, about 5 minutes.
5. Stir in the sherry and cook 3 to 5 minutes longer. Stir in the stock, water, and thyme, if using. Cover and bring to a boil; then reduce the heat to low and simmer, partially covered, for 30 minutes, stirring occasionally. Taste, adding more salt and pepper as needed.
6. Ladle the hot soup into 4 bowls and pass the grated cheese at the table.

To Make French-Style California Onion Soup Gratinee, you will also need:

8 slices Gruyere cheese, plus 1 generous cup shredded

2 cups homemade or store-bought plain croutons, or 8-to-12 toasted baguette slices

1. After Step #5 above, preheat the broiler. Place 4 ovenproof crocks or bowls on a foil- or parchment-lined baking sheet.
2. Divide the hot soup equally among the bowls. Cover each with 2 slices of cheese and top with 1/2 cup croutons; then sprinkle a generous 1/4 cup of shredded cheese evenly over all. Place the baking sheet about 6 inches from the broiler and broil, watching carefully, until the cheese is bubbly-hot and lightly browned. Serve warm.

Cook’s Tips

# If you are skilled with a knife, go for it! Otherwise, use the slicing blade on a food processor or a mandoline to cut the onions.

# Cooking onions “low and slow” results in caramelization, and elevates this humble vegetable to one of the tenets of haute cuisine. Many good cooks keep a batch of caramelized onions in the refrigerator, at the ready to add richness and instant depth of flavor to sautés, stews, and sauces. (Prepare the onions through Step #3 above. Let cool, and refrigerate in a sealed container.)

You can also create your own California Onion Dip by mixing caramelized onions with sour cream, a drizzle of California olive oil, and salt and pepper to taste.

# For those who follow a strict vegetarian diet, substitute good-quality vegetable stock for the beef stock in this recipe. 

#If you prefer to avoid alcohol substitute water or stock for the sherry, and add a squeeze of fresh lemon juice to brighten the flavors.

# If you are indulging in the more traditional version of onion soup, do opt for Gruyere cheese whenever possible. Its texture, melting quality, and slightly nutty flavor outshine any other Swiss-style cheese.

But for a change of pace, a goodcheddar also works surprisingly well.

It’s a Cryin’ Shame….

# There are more than 500 hundred varieties of onions, but they all fall into three major categories: Common “storage onions” have protective papery skins and can be kept for long periods of time. They have a more pronounced heat that mellows with cooking—as in the soup recipe above. Storage onions should be kept in a paper (not plastic) bag in a pantry or other cool, dry place, away from potatoes or other vegetables.

“Sweet onions” are grown seasonally in various parts of the world. Although they have a much shorter shelf life, they are considerably milder and release no fumes when cut.

Finally there are “fresh onions” with green stalks, such as spring onions and scallions, which are the most perishable of all. These should be stored in an open plastic bag in the produce drawer of the refrigerator.

# Although you should not routinely refrigerate storage onions, refrigerating them for 30 minutes or so before slicing seems to tame their sometimes pungent fumes.

—————————————————————————————————-

The Danville Certified Farmers’ Market, located at Railroad & Prospect, is open every Saturday, rain or shine, from 9 a.m. until 1 p.m. For specific crop information call the Pacific Coast Farmers’ Market Association at 1-800-949-FARM, or visit their web site at www.pcfma.org. This market is made possible through the generous support of the Town of Danville. Please show your appreciation by patronizing the many fine shops and restaurants located in downtown Danville. Buy fresh. Buy local. Live well.

Writing has always been an outlet for me.  Since I was a child, I was drawn to reading books (I was a regular at my local library) and soon to follow was journal writing, poetry, and excitement whenever given an essay assignment in school. As time went by, like most people, I strayed away from my creative passions to earn more accessible income employment through the common employment sectors of retail or administrative work.  I eventually became a parent and the rest is history. I was officially another number added to the percentage of creatively inclined individuals that stopped doing the things they loved.  It wasn’t until my youngest child survived a stroke that I got my writing groove back.  At first it was to help me cope with this unexpected trauma but it became more than that as time passed.

The year 2020 invites many cliché statements to make it a year of gaining a new perspective, making a year of clear visions and so on.  While I do hope it is a year of new opportunities and realizing the potential available for all of us, I wanted to reflect on 2019 as a contributor to Alive East Bay Magazine.  With my decision to focus on special needs inclusion and provide awareness along with hope for the special needs community, I thought it would be articles that would help families going through similar struggles.  As I sought new ideas and topics each month with the typical writer’s block, I had an epiphany.  In addition to provide awareness, hope and resources for special needs families I thought “why not interview individuals or organizations?”.  And so I did.  It was the most enlightening and positive decision I could have made.  The year 2019 turned into such positive introductions to the many people in our community that have hearts of gold.  With all the despair shoved in our faces and our ears, it was a breath of fresh air to interview those that provide assistance, time and love for others that struggle.  My warm and fuzzy monthly articles not only gave me a new appreciation for our world but introduced me to a new definition of the term “special needs”.   It is a term intended to reference those with physical or developmental delays. I found, through the many people I got to meet in person or by phone, that it is an umbrella term because although not every person needs physical assistance, every human has a special need to feel included, acknowledged, appreciated and most of all loved.  Everyone, no matter their physical or developmental abilities, has a need of emotional, mental and spiritual fulfillment.  We all have a need to feel special.  We all have a need to not just survive but to feel “Alive.” 

My articles began as a way for me to inspire families with medical struggles but I was inspired- by the people I met and the tenacity of their focus to help others struggling daily. As a new year begins, while my focus is still inclusion, it will encompass my new appreciation for those who have survived the unthinkable. It will also encompass those who lend a hand along with blood, sweat and tears to provide some ease for those going through unfortunate moments that can happen to any of us.  It’s a boomerang. What we give, we get back in tenfold. It takes not just one person but a village.  So begins 2020 with grateful hindsight and a new vision for my articles- to expand my promoting of inclusion that started with those with medical delays to also encircle all random acts of human kindness.  Welcome to “It Takes A Village.”  I hope you join me monthly as I share my experiences of meeting people that continue to enlarge the circle of inclusion, connection and joy that covers the multitude of struggles all humans may face in their lives.  May my articles be one of many droplets that help maintain a spiritual, mental, and emotional 20/20 vision that reminds you that you are never alone. 

Your Soul Mate!

The world of vehicles is changing as the demands for sedans decrease, and the desire for SUVs and Crossovers are on the rise. One vehicle filling this fairly-new demand is the newly redesigned 2020 Kia Soul, a subcompact SUV. The Soul has a comfortable interior boasting generous passenger and cargo space, including a long list of available features. It’s easy to drive and has good performance and handling.

Pricing and Trims
The2020 Kia Soul is available in five trim levels: LX ($18,535), S ($21,335), GT-Line ($21,335), X-Line ($22,535), and EX Designer Collection ($23,735).

What’s New for 2020?
According to Kia, the 2020 Soul includes a forward design, modern tech, and a more diverse model lineup. The iconic Soul’s shape and profile has evolved slightly and sits upon an all-new platform. Technology advancements begin with the available 10.25-inch wide display, heads-up display, and a new cockpit designed to improve the musical experience. New model trims like the GT-Line and X-Line showcase the performance aspirations of the Soul.

Interior Highpoints
The Kia Soul is known for its boxy dimensions that deliver a surprising amount of passenger and cargo room. The 2020 version grows slightly longer (2.2-inches) than its previous version and Kia’s smart-design packaging allows for increased accessibility. The wheelbase has also been amplified by 1.2-inch helping in part to improve the driving comfort. The biggest boost is in the Soul’s cargo capacity which has swelled to 23.8 cu.-ft.; a 5 cubic-foot increase!

Other interior design highlights include an available sound mood lighting that emits customizable colored soft light from the door panels that can be synchronized to the beat of the music playing from the Soul’s audio system. Plus, there is available wireless charging, dual auto climate control, and tweeter speakers.

The 2020 Soul is equipped with a next-gen infotainment system and Kia’s drive-wise technologies including an available 10.25-inch HD color touchscreen with split screen function and rearview monitor with parking guidance. Android Auto and Apple Car Play, available 8-inch heads-up display, Bluetooth® multi-connect, and an available 640-watt Harman Kardon audio system.

Exterior Highlights
The exterior of the 2020 Soul is even cleaner than before with better “SOUL” graphics garnished in the C-pillars. High-tech front headlights and slim-designed daytime running lights and turn signal indicators sit in between a larger front grille with a unique two-toned treatment. Three-dimensional wraparound boomerang- shaped taillights and C-pillars designed to resemble airplane wings finish up the rear design.

Performance Specs
Power comes from a 2.0-liter Nu four-cylinder engine with 147 HP matted to a 6-speed manual transmission or Intelligent Variable transmission. An optional 1.6-liter twin scroll turbocharged 4-cylinder is packaged with a 7-speed dual clutch transmission and generates 201 horses.

Cool Features:

• Available 10.25-inch HD color touchscreen
  
  
• Available 8-inch Head-Up Display
  
  

Safety &Integrity
The 2020 Kia Soul is packed with what Kia calls the “Kia Drive Wise” features. These include Forward Collision Avoidance, Lane Keeping Assist, Lane Changing Assist, Driver Attention Warning, Blind-Spot Collision Warning, Rear Cross Collision Warning, Smart Cruise Control, High Beam Assist, and more.

In Summary –If you are in the market for a subcompact vehicle that possesses ample people and cargo space, is fun to drive, has an iconic shape, great price and gets excellent gas mileage, then you might want to get behind the wheel of the all-new Kia Soul!

Specifications.

2020 Kia Soul X-Line

Base price:                 $21,620 as driven: $22,615 (including destination & optional features)

Engine:                       2.0-liter 4-cylinder

Horsepower:             147 hp @ 6,200 rpm

Torque:                      132 lb.-ft. @ 4,500 rpm

Transmission:           Intelligent Variable Transmission (i-VT)

Drive:                          FrontWheel Drive

Seating:                       5-passenger

Cargo space:              24.2/62.1 cubic feet (rear seats up/down)

Curb weight:              2,844pounds

Fuel Capacity:           14.3 gallons

Fuel Economy:           27 MPG City, 33 MPG Highway

Wheelbase:                102.4inches

Warranty:                   10 years/100,000-miles

Also Consider:           Buick Encore, Chevrolet Trax, Fiat 500X, Ford EcoSport, Honda HR-V, Mini Cooper, Jeep Renegade, Hyundai Kona, Subaru Crosstrek

I have been a Board-Certified Dermatologist for over 40 years and I have observed that there are many wonderful procedures and treatments that improve the look and health of your skin, hair and nails. However, the number one secret to beautiful skin is connected to your “thinking.”  The world is vibrational—protons, neutrons, energy waves—everything around us in motion, and nothing moves around more than our thinking.

When we have a disease or any illness, it certainly affects our thinking. The big question is: does disease cause stinkin’ thinkin’ or does stinkin’ thinkin’ cause disease. No matter which comes first, the idea is to stop the negative thinking to help improve conditions.

 There are five simple principles that can improve your overall health and well being leading to glowing skin.

Principle #1: Be Grateful  

Start where you are right now. Focus on the good stuff in your life and the world in general. There has to be something—even a stopped clock is right twice a day! When we stop to pay attention to all that we have to be grateful for, we find so much. Gratitude creates success and fulfillment in our lives. Being grateful for all that we have leads us to attract and create more things to be grateful for.

Principle #2: Choose Positive Thoughts & Feelings

Our thoughts and feelings are incredibly powerful. Both what we think and how we feel have the ability to attract positive and negative things into our lives. When we are able to acknowledge and express our thoughts and feelings appropriately, we can consciously choose the positive ones we want. By focusing our thoughts and feelings in a positive direction, we’re able to create a life of appreciation, success and fulfillment.

Principle #3: Use Positive Words

The words we use towards others and about ourselves have great impact. Our words have the power to create, not just to describe. Understanding the power of our words and using them in a positive way are both essential aspects of appreciation, acknowledgement, and good health.

Principle #4: Acknowledge Others

Expressing our appreciation and gratitude for others through acknowledgment is one of the most loving and empowering things we can do for those around us. Acknowledgment, both reactive and proactive, is the best way to connect with people, let them know how much they mean to us, and motivate them in a genuine way. AND it feels good!

Principle #5: Appreciate Yourself

Self-appreciation is self-love. Self-love is the most important gift we can give ourselves. If we truly love ourselves, nothing much else matters. You cannot give what you do not have inside you to give. When we appreciate ourselves, we make it possible to honestly appreciate others and life in general. Self-appreciation is the foundation of all appreciation.

In the spirit of self-appreciation, take time today to make an appointment to have that original birthday suit of yours checked out and cared for. At Advanced Laser & Skin Care Center, we take care of your skin and the shape that it’s in. We provide Medical and Cosmetic Dermatology in a spa-like environment with a positive and professional team to help you look and feel your best. For more information about all our services or to schedule a consultation, call me: Michael J. Tomcik, MD at Advanced Laser & Skin Care Center 925-743-1488.

 The Indian man is a red skinned warrior; an equally counted and equally created man. A man, who not only has a great respect for himself, but also for his people; not just for some, or a few, but for all in his beautiful homeland.

A man whose ancestors, and their ancestors, have lived here since time first began; people whose blood has been spilled throughout much of this same big and beautiful American land.

Yet, even with knowing of all the hardships, oppression, persecution, and tribulations that his people have faced in darkened days gone by, at the hands of European invaders and other foreign crusaders, the modern and proud Indian man tries to live a life without shame, blame, disdain or in an umbrageous sort of way, towards those of today, whose ancestors tortured and maligned his people in such cold and callous way.

The proud Indian man, who believes that God Almighty is the Creator, and the Creator is God Almighty, who wants us all to be good to one another. We are to show, much love and respect,regardless of race, color or creed, towards our fellow human beings.

After all, this world, this gift, does not just belong to them or us, or to him or to her. No Sir, no ma’am, it should belong to no one. It is for all of us to share, to care and hopefully enjoy together to the fullest, without lines of demarcation or ownership by those of hearts without pity or lack of respect for our precious Mother Earth, the land itself.

The Indian man, is a man who always shows the greatest of love, and appreciation, of all that he has been given; gifts given from the Creator without monetary value as a means of measure.

And hopefully, one day, it is my sincere hope, that when my time has come to an end, and my next life’s journey has just begun, that people will say that I, John Torres Arambula, too, was that same kind of  Indian man.  

Gone are the days when cropped denim is meant for warmer months. Cropped denim for winter is a great way to showcase some fun shoes. These stylish jeans are perfect for all the fun winter shoes. With so many styles to choose from in cropped denim, you’ll look great all season long. There’s flare, raw hem, and classic hem, not to mention the variety of washes and color options. This winter, invest in a pair you love and rock em’! The best part is you can rock them all year long. Once winter is over, wear them for spring, summer, and fall too!

So, let’s talk shoes with cropped denim. I don’t know about you but during the cold winter months I’ve got to wear some sort of sock on my feet—whether toe socks with sneakers, ankle socks with booties, or mid-calf cozy socks with rain boots. Socks are a must for overall warmth. Closed-toe shoes and socks are totally manageable and work great with cropped denim.

On rainy days, opt for a pair of short rain boots. These are perfect for rain and all the puddles. No worrying about your pants getting wet in the puddles and the cropped length hits perfectly next to the short boots. Cropped denim is also great because it allows for the rain boots without long jeans getting crumpled when attempting to tuck them into the boots. I like to wear printed cozy socks with my rain boots. This helps keep my ankles warm and the peek-a-boo sock looks cute between the jeans and rain boots. Just be sure to keep it in coordination with your upper half. I usually opt for patterned cozy socks when I’m keeping it super casual on the top half.

Side note (rant): One of the worst things is trying to tuck jeans into a boot that just doesn’t fit. Cropped denim and short rain boots solve this problem. This duo is also great because if you wear tall rain boots it means you’re confined to wearing skinny jeans or leggings. Tucking pants that aren’t fitted is a “no go,” so just don’t do it. Don’t try to overlap the pants and tuck them in socks or whatever the remedy for tucking jeans might be. If they don’t lay flat inside the boot with ease, the jeans should not be worn with the boots.

Next, wear your cropped denim with leather or suede booties. Booties dress up denim perfectly. Whether your cropped denim is flared, a raw hem, or a classic hem, booties are great. Mixing casual denim, such as the raw hem, makes for awesome visual interest. If your cropped denim happens to lay over the top of the bootie, just tuck one side in to help show off the bootie. I like to tuck the hem to the inside of my bootie and leave the outer side hem un-tucked.

Lastly, wear your cropped denim with sneakers. Whether you have slip on sneakers, tie up sneakers, or high-top sneakers; all options work. They are also a great option for rain or light snow. Your jeans stay dry because they’re basically high waiters and always ready for a flood! Hehe! Slip-on sneakers are easier to dress up. I like to wear slip-ons with a blouse and cardigan for the perfect mix of dressy and casual. Lace-up sneakers are great for wearing with a tee, sweatshirt, or pullover sweater.

Thanks for reading dear ones. Stop by maccarose.com for links to these pieces.

Thumbing page one of a new book.  Making the turn onto the back nine. And of course, watching the Times Square Ball drop on New Year’s Eve. Each offers a visceral sense of a new beginning, what researchers refer to as the fresh-start effect.  Psychologists studying the fresh-start effect say that such occasions create a sense of a clean slate and inspire people to aspirational behavior.  These temporal landmarks offer us a chance to recreate ourselves freshly, to become self-esteeming, self-relying and self-affirming.

As 2019 becomes 2020, many of us are looking for ways to gain a fresh start and better our sense of self. East Bay shoppers might be surprised to find that the Danville Livery offers possibilities for personal renewal through fitness opportunities, aesthetic and beauty consultations and of course retail therapy.

Easily the most common January vow most of us renew is a focus on fitness.  Many equate fitness with what we see in the mirror, but fitness is much more than losing that holiday 10. Focusing on a system of movement and mobility rather than on fitting into a new pair of skinny jeans not only improves appearance, but also brings inner well-being.  Just Be Yoga is a Danville Livery studio that offers a perfect place to build and deepen the mind and body through yoga.  The studio sees itself as a fearless, authentic community and offers a range of classes that may cater to new students or develop aspiring instructors.  Just Be Yoga also sponsors retreats that nourish body, soul and authentic human connection.  Also, those aspiring fitness can find two Pilates studios in the Danville Livery, Proformance Pilates and IM=X Pilates.  Proformance Pilates promotes Pilates Reformer Classes, but also offers Pilates Mat, Spin and Foundation classes. IM=X Pilates advertises a modernized curriculum, one that reinvents, re-choreographs and reconstructs several disciplines to reflect the newest research on fitness, cardiovascular training and spine stabilization. 

Further, the Danville Livery boasts several salons and clinics that employ some of the finest beauty therapists in the East Bay.  Beauty may be skin deep, but healthy skin certainly deepens beauty. Essential Aesthetics, a medical spa housed in the Livery, offers laser skin services, dermal filler, chemical peels and aesthetic injections.  Founded by Medical Director Dr. Abishai Rumano, M.D., FAAFP, and overseen by Elham Zarnegar, MPAS, PA-C, the spa provides the very best in aesthetic medicine throughout the San Ramon Valley.  The elegant women of Danville who believe that looking good is feeling good can also visit two newly opened beauty establishments, Be.you.tiful Salon and Space Hair Studio.  Be.you.tiful Salon promotes technicians passionate about hair and who are up to date on latest cut and color styles.  The salon offers beauty plans that include free clean-ups between appointments and consultations on hair health as well as brow and threading procedures. Space Hair Studio, founded by prominent New York Stylist Andrea Pappalardo, specializes in advanced chemical work such as smoothing, straightening and color.

Finally, retail therapy—shopping to increase happiness—offers a legitimate method of stress relief. Researchers suggest that doing activities we enjoy keeps us excited about life, and there is evidence to indicate that retail therapy can even be heart healthy by reducing blood pressure.  Experts suggest that the best form of retail therapy is shopping focused on a new beginning, something as simple as a new set of towels for the bathroom or a contemporary designer bag for the winter.  The Danville Livery’s many boutique shops are full of vibrant, imaginative products that will revitalize shoppers looking for a fresh start to 2020.

With another year and decade in the history books, 2020 has a tough act to follow, as 2019 was a big surprise for the financial markets. They did what was least expected—they went up a lot. For the economy, another surprise: no recession. However, after 35 years of Wall Street experience, I’ve learned that 2019’s results shouldn’t be a total surprise. The market’s nature is to “climb the wall of worry,” doing what is least expected. Market action is often counter-intuitive and usually confounds consensus forecasts. To be fair, it is hard to fault analysts’ gloomy predictions for 2019. Just as they were undertaking their assessment of the stock market for the year ahead, the market was in a steep sell-off. December of 2018 was the worst December since 1931. In the midst of that steep fall it was difficult to foretell 2019 being the best year for stocks since 1997. By now you have likely read and heard many market pundits’ take on the investment markets and economies for the new year. Below are my forecasts for the U.S. markets, and next month will be my forecasts for the 2020 Global Outlook.

My outlooks always begin with what I know, then to what I think, and finish with what I will do. So, what do we know? For starters, we all know 2020 will bring with it myriad market-moving events, most obvious the 2020 presidential election and the next phases in U.S.-China trade relations. Also well-known is the age of the bull market, which is now the longest stock market run ever. In addition, the U.S. economy is in the longest expansion in history. It is known that interest rates were unexpectedly cut three times last year and the Fed has clearly telegraphed it has no plans to move on interest rates for now. With near “goldilocks” market conditions and a “TINA” (There is No Alternative) mentality to stocks, market volatility has collapsed to a record low. The historical post-world War II average price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.3. With the major index PE ratio now about 19.5 (based on trailing earnings of $163), we know the market is not “cheap.” What I also know is big gains for the stock market is often good news for the next. The S&P 500 has jumped 20% or more in a year 24 times in its history since 1928. In the years that followed those winning years, the index rose 66% of the time (with an average of 6.6%). Lastly on the stock market, next year bodes well for stocks as 2020 will be the fourth year of the presidential election cycle. Historically, the third year has been the best of the four for the stock market. Stocks performed second best in the cycle’s fourth year. Moreover, while the U.S. economy avoided a recession in 2019, it is growing at a slowing rate. And, we know a government shutdown in 2020 was averted with $1.4 trillion spending agreement, which keeps the government going through its 2020 fiscal year ending in September.

What I Think: Resiliency Amongst Uncertainty

As I quoted in my 2019 Outlook: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria,” said Sir John Templeton. Bull markets do not end from old age. As mentioned, the current bull market that began in March of 2009 is now the oldest ever. While it may not be young, this bull market is far from euphoric. Remember Alan Greenspan’s warning in 1996 that “irrational exuberance” could have inflated stock prices?  Or, late 1999 and early 2000 when people were quitting their jobs to day-trade stocks?  That’s market euphoria. More simply, the fact that this market is known as the, “Most hated bull market ever” speaks to anti-euphoria. It is a mistake to say, “Last year the stock market went up so much it can’t possibly do it again this year.”  No correlation between one year’s gains and the next exists. Don’t assume 2020 must drop because 2019 rose. Looking ahead, I have summed up 2020 thematically as a year of Resiliency Amongst Uncertainty. I expect earnings, which I have always believed to be the single most important factor determining stock prices, to be resilient this year. They will increase over 2019, supported by lower-for-longer interest rates and a weaker dollar, and driven by efficiencies achieved through corporation’s innovative fiscal management. Working through my analysis, 3488 is my S&P 500 price prediction for 2020. The resilient earnings and higher stock market will occur in the face on abnormally high global uncertainty. Beginning with impeachment proceedings, which history has shown can derail the stock market temporarily, 2020 will offer investors a full plate of FUD (Fear Uncertainty & Doubt).

Beyond Wall Street and on to Main Street, the U.S. economy will be recession free and continue to grow in 2020. With employment at its strongest in 50 years, interest rates still near record lows, and a big bump in wealth through increased home values and investment portfolios, the American consumer will keep on consuming. Consumer consumption has been, and will continue to be in 2020, the biggest contributor to economic growth. Low interest rates and tame inflation are further reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2020. Contra to uncertainties from Asia to Europe, and the rest of the world, the U.S. economy will be resilient. Consumers, and manufacturers alike, had their confidence tested repeatedly in 2019 by global uncertainties from Saudi oil infrastructure to tariffs and trade. Expect more of the same in 2020: resiliency amongst uncertainty.

Look for part 2 of my outlook next month: 2020 Global Outlook.

Wishing you a healthy and happy New Year and Decade!