January 2020

Gone are the days when cropped denim is meant for warmer months. Cropped denim for winter is a great way to showcase some fun shoes. These stylish jeans are perfect for all the fun winter shoes. With so many styles to choose from in cropped denim, you’ll look great all season long. There’s flare, raw hem, and classic hem, not to mention the variety of washes and color options. This winter, invest in a pair you love and rock em’! The best part is you can rock them all year long. Once winter is over, wear them for spring, summer, and fall too!

So, let’s talk shoes with cropped denim. I don’t know about you but during the cold winter months I’ve got to wear some sort of sock on my feet—whether toe socks with sneakers, ankle socks with booties, or mid-calf cozy socks with rain boots. Socks are a must for overall warmth. Closed-toe shoes and socks are totally manageable and work great with cropped denim.

On rainy days, opt for a pair of short rain boots. These are perfect for rain and all the puddles. No worrying about your pants getting wet in the puddles and the cropped length hits perfectly next to the short boots. Cropped denim is also great because it allows for the rain boots without long jeans getting crumpled when attempting to tuck them into the boots. I like to wear printed cozy socks with my rain boots. This helps keep my ankles warm and the peek-a-boo sock looks cute between the jeans and rain boots. Just be sure to keep it in coordination with your upper half. I usually opt for patterned cozy socks when I’m keeping it super casual on the top half.

Side note (rant): One of the worst things is trying to tuck jeans into a boot that just doesn’t fit. Cropped denim and short rain boots solve this problem. This duo is also great because if you wear tall rain boots it means you’re confined to wearing skinny jeans or leggings. Tucking pants that aren’t fitted is a “no go,” so just don’t do it. Don’t try to overlap the pants and tuck them in socks or whatever the remedy for tucking jeans might be. If they don’t lay flat inside the boot with ease, the jeans should not be worn with the boots.

Next, wear your cropped denim with leather or suede booties. Booties dress up denim perfectly. Whether your cropped denim is flared, a raw hem, or a classic hem, booties are great. Mixing casual denim, such as the raw hem, makes for awesome visual interest. If your cropped denim happens to lay over the top of the bootie, just tuck one side in to help show off the bootie. I like to tuck the hem to the inside of my bootie and leave the outer side hem un-tucked.

Lastly, wear your cropped denim with sneakers. Whether you have slip on sneakers, tie up sneakers, or high-top sneakers; all options work. They are also a great option for rain or light snow. Your jeans stay dry because they’re basically high waiters and always ready for a flood! Hehe! Slip-on sneakers are easier to dress up. I like to wear slip-ons with a blouse and cardigan for the perfect mix of dressy and casual. Lace-up sneakers are great for wearing with a tee, sweatshirt, or pullover sweater.

Thanks for reading dear ones. Stop by maccarose.com for links to these pieces.

Thumbing page one of a new book.  Making the turn onto the back nine. And of course, watching the Times Square Ball drop on New Year’s Eve. Each offers a visceral sense of a new beginning, what researchers refer to as the fresh-start effect.  Psychologists studying the fresh-start effect say that such occasions create a sense of a clean slate and inspire people to aspirational behavior.  These temporal landmarks offer us a chance to recreate ourselves freshly, to become self-esteeming, self-relying and self-affirming.

As 2019 becomes 2020, many of us are looking for ways to gain a fresh start and better our sense of self. East Bay shoppers might be surprised to find that the Danville Livery offers possibilities for personal renewal through fitness opportunities, aesthetic and beauty consultations and of course retail therapy.

Easily the most common January vow most of us renew is a focus on fitness.  Many equate fitness with what we see in the mirror, but fitness is much more than losing that holiday 10. Focusing on a system of movement and mobility rather than on fitting into a new pair of skinny jeans not only improves appearance, but also brings inner well-being.  Just Be Yoga is a Danville Livery studio that offers a perfect place to build and deepen the mind and body through yoga.  The studio sees itself as a fearless, authentic community and offers a range of classes that may cater to new students or develop aspiring instructors.  Just Be Yoga also sponsors retreats that nourish body, soul and authentic human connection.  Also, those aspiring fitness can find two Pilates studios in the Danville Livery, Proformance Pilates and IM=X Pilates.  Proformance Pilates promotes Pilates Reformer Classes, but also offers Pilates Mat, Spin and Foundation classes. IM=X Pilates advertises a modernized curriculum, one that reinvents, re-choreographs and reconstructs several disciplines to reflect the newest research on fitness, cardiovascular training and spine stabilization. 

Further, the Danville Livery boasts several salons and clinics that employ some of the finest beauty therapists in the East Bay.  Beauty may be skin deep, but healthy skin certainly deepens beauty. Essential Aesthetics, a medical spa housed in the Livery, offers laser skin services, dermal filler, chemical peels and aesthetic injections.  Founded by Medical Director Dr. Abishai Rumano, M.D., FAAFP, and overseen by Elham Zarnegar, MPAS, PA-C, the spa provides the very best in aesthetic medicine throughout the San Ramon Valley.  The elegant women of Danville who believe that looking good is feeling good can also visit two newly opened beauty establishments, Be.you.tiful Salon and Space Hair Studio.  Be.you.tiful Salon promotes technicians passionate about hair and who are up to date on latest cut and color styles.  The salon offers beauty plans that include free clean-ups between appointments and consultations on hair health as well as brow and threading procedures. Space Hair Studio, founded by prominent New York Stylist Andrea Pappalardo, specializes in advanced chemical work such as smoothing, straightening and color.

Finally, retail therapy—shopping to increase happiness—offers a legitimate method of stress relief. Researchers suggest that doing activities we enjoy keeps us excited about life, and there is evidence to indicate that retail therapy can even be heart healthy by reducing blood pressure.  Experts suggest that the best form of retail therapy is shopping focused on a new beginning, something as simple as a new set of towels for the bathroom or a contemporary designer bag for the winter.  The Danville Livery’s many boutique shops are full of vibrant, imaginative products that will revitalize shoppers looking for a fresh start to 2020.

With another year and decade in the history books, 2020 has a tough act to follow, as 2019 was a big surprise for the financial markets. They did what was least expected—they went up a lot. For the economy, another surprise: no recession. However, after 35 years of Wall Street experience, I’ve learned that 2019’s results shouldn’t be a total surprise. The market’s nature is to “climb the wall of worry,” doing what is least expected. Market action is often counter-intuitive and usually confounds consensus forecasts. To be fair, it is hard to fault analysts’ gloomy predictions for 2019. Just as they were undertaking their assessment of the stock market for the year ahead, the market was in a steep sell-off. December of 2018 was the worst December since 1931. In the midst of that steep fall it was difficult to foretell 2019 being the best year for stocks since 1997. By now you have likely read and heard many market pundits’ take on the investment markets and economies for the new year. Below are my forecasts for the U.S. markets, and next month will be my forecasts for the 2020 Global Outlook.

My outlooks always begin with what I know, then to what I think, and finish with what I will do. So, what do we know? For starters, we all know 2020 will bring with it myriad market-moving events, most obvious the 2020 presidential election and the next phases in U.S.-China trade relations. Also well-known is the age of the bull market, which is now the longest stock market run ever. In addition, the U.S. economy is in the longest expansion in history. It is known that interest rates were unexpectedly cut three times last year and the Fed has clearly telegraphed it has no plans to move on interest rates for now. With near “goldilocks” market conditions and a “TINA” (There is No Alternative) mentality to stocks, market volatility has collapsed to a record low. The historical post-world War II average price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.3. With the major index PE ratio now about 19.5 (based on trailing earnings of $163), we know the market is not “cheap.” What I also know is big gains for the stock market is often good news for the next. The S&P 500 has jumped 20% or more in a year 24 times in its history since 1928. In the years that followed those winning years, the index rose 66% of the time (with an average of 6.6%). Lastly on the stock market, next year bodes well for stocks as 2020 will be the fourth year of the presidential election cycle. Historically, the third year has been the best of the four for the stock market. Stocks performed second best in the cycle’s fourth year. Moreover, while the U.S. economy avoided a recession in 2019, it is growing at a slowing rate. And, we know a government shutdown in 2020 was averted with $1.4 trillion spending agreement, which keeps the government going through its 2020 fiscal year ending in September.

What I Think: Resiliency Amongst Uncertainty

As I quoted in my 2019 Outlook: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria,” said Sir John Templeton. Bull markets do not end from old age. As mentioned, the current bull market that began in March of 2009 is now the oldest ever. While it may not be young, this bull market is far from euphoric. Remember Alan Greenspan’s warning in 1996 that “irrational exuberance” could have inflated stock prices?  Or, late 1999 and early 2000 when people were quitting their jobs to day-trade stocks?  That’s market euphoria. More simply, the fact that this market is known as the, “Most hated bull market ever” speaks to anti-euphoria. It is a mistake to say, “Last year the stock market went up so much it can’t possibly do it again this year.”  No correlation between one year’s gains and the next exists. Don’t assume 2020 must drop because 2019 rose. Looking ahead, I have summed up 2020 thematically as a year of Resiliency Amongst Uncertainty. I expect earnings, which I have always believed to be the single most important factor determining stock prices, to be resilient this year. They will increase over 2019, supported by lower-for-longer interest rates and a weaker dollar, and driven by efficiencies achieved through corporation’s innovative fiscal management. Working through my analysis, 3488 is my S&P 500 price prediction for 2020. The resilient earnings and higher stock market will occur in the face on abnormally high global uncertainty. Beginning with impeachment proceedings, which history has shown can derail the stock market temporarily, 2020 will offer investors a full plate of FUD (Fear Uncertainty & Doubt).

Beyond Wall Street and on to Main Street, the U.S. economy will be recession free and continue to grow in 2020. With employment at its strongest in 50 years, interest rates still near record lows, and a big bump in wealth through increased home values and investment portfolios, the American consumer will keep on consuming. Consumer consumption has been, and will continue to be in 2020, the biggest contributor to economic growth. Low interest rates and tame inflation are further reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2020. Contra to uncertainties from Asia to Europe, and the rest of the world, the U.S. economy will be resilient. Consumers, and manufacturers alike, had their confidence tested repeatedly in 2019 by global uncertainties from Saudi oil infrastructure to tariffs and trade. Expect more of the same in 2020: resiliency amongst uncertainty.

Look for part 2 of my outlook next month: 2020 Global Outlook.

Wishing you a healthy and happy New Year and Decade!

Beautiful and rare, gold has been manufactured for millennia.  It’s been used in jewelry, medicine, conductors, cuisine, photography, heat shielding, and electroplating.  There are over 187,000 tons of it above ground, worth about $8.9 trillion, with half used for jewelry and the rest in investments and industry.  It means ‘to shine’, so let’s shine a light on some gold-related trivia.

1)  Used in jewelry and as household wealth, what country imports the most gold and has the most clothing made with gold thread?

2)  Launched in 1977, a gold-plated record was included on a space probe to send out of our solar system. It had many images and sounds of humanity. Name the probe.

3)  In 1957 Rawlings created baseball’s Gold Glove Award for defensive skill. What Hall of Famer holds the record for winning the most Gold Gloves, with 18? He pitched for the Cubs and Braves.

4)  The California Gold Rush began in 1848 when James W. Marshall discovered gold at a mill in Coloma. Who was his boss?

5)  As you might imagine, this European country has the world’s most gold per capita.

6)  There are three James Bond movies with “GOLD” in the title.  Name them.

Both mental and physical health problems can either be caused or exacerbated by poor posture. There are ample scientific studies on this relationship as well as biofeedback devices developed to help remind us when we slouch.  Rather than go into these areas, I want to address some factors that cause this ever-increasing problem affecting our wellbeing.

As I have mentioned in earlier articles, my approach in treatment of pain and dysfunction is holistic.  Simply put, I study everything about the patient that could possibly contribute to why that patient has come to me for help. A holistic approach is never limited to modern medicine, for ancient medicine, in many cases, is far more effective and less threatening to the patient’s health, happiness, and life.

In my TMJ practice I have found a remarkable increase in neck, shoulder, and back pain, in addition to myofascial, headache, and joint pain.  A holistic look at the public, in general, demonstrates an incredible increase in slouching.  Some of it is caused by the introduction of backpacks to even very young students. In earlier cultures, loads were carried on heads, causing a person to stand up straight.  People only looked down for food, obstacles in their path, or footprints.  Now the excessive use of cell phones, social media devices, games, and computers have resulted in excessive slouching.

Any time there is a sudden change of human activity and posture that has existed for endless years, it’s logical to expect this could trigger a negative response to health, both mental and physical.

I recently took part in a big game fishing tournament in Mexico. There was no WiFi at the location which forced otherwise too busy businessmen to talk to each other.  I got to have conversations with some very interesting men and women and learned about their businesses and their lives and we became international friends. Wi-Fi would have prevented this. In coffee shops we have the same problem; everyone is looking at their cell phone, thus they don’t get to know each other. In addition, challenges that could be shared don’t get discussed which opens another door to mental health and social problems.

In the November 2019 edition of the Townsend Letter, “The Examiner of Alternative Medicine,” they introduce a biofeedback device—the “Upright Go 2.” This device, when applied to one’s back, vibrates when one slouches. When this device was used to treat one group along with a control group not using it, the study showed “significantly improved physical and mental health scores” for the group using the device.

In my practice at Advanced Oral Diagnosis & Treatment Center, when we’re dealing with patients suffering from chronic pain, we know their physical and mental health are major factors to consider. As you can easily understand, the holistic approach is far more complicated and time consuming than “let me give you something for your condition.” For more information about my practice, please visit:  www.aodtc.com or call 925-837-8048.  I specialize in TMJ therapy and custom made oral devices to treat obstructive sleep apnea.

Q. For Mother’s Day, I received a beautiful silver-gray foliage, pink flowering Bromeliad. It’s thriving, and several new plants are forming at the base. How would I go about transplanting these plants?                                              

A. Bromeliads are an ideal indoor flowering plant as they are in bloom for months. They reach maturity and stop producing new leaves when in bud and bloom. It is at this point that a healthy bromeliad produces offshoots from the base called pups. The main plant is often referred to as the mother plant. Once the pups reach about one-third the size of the mother plant, they’re easily transplanted, and it’s pretty easy to do. First, cover your work area with a layer of newspaper. You then gently remove the mother plant from the container, exposing the area where the pups are joined. If necessary, remove any additional soil from the crown area, so you have a clear view of the base of both plants. The pups may or may not have their own root system. The pups should easily separate from the mother plant without the use of any tools. If they resist, give them a firm but gentle tug, or you can cut them off near the base of the mother plant with a sharp knife or use a pair of pruning shears. The pups are not replanted right away. Instead, place them in a dry location for a couple of days to allow the cuts to seal themselves. This is called callusing. The callusing prevents any soil-borne diseases from entering through the soft tissue wounds. The pups, one per six-inch pot, are centered in the new container using any commercial type of potting soil. You gently press the pre-moistened soil down around the base of the pup to keep them upright, and don’t forget to add water to the center of the leaf whirl. Transplanting shock should not be a concern. You can transplant all the pups or just the most vigorous. The pups mature in less the nine months, flower, and form their own pups. The mother plant is usually discarded after removing the pups as they very often naturally die.

Q. After pruning my roses, is there any special winter fertilizer I should apply? Also, what should I treat the bare stems to minimize the Rose Rust and Black Spot this year?

A. While there isn’t any particular type of winter fertilizer for roses, they do need to be fed, but it’s a bit early to start. I’d wait another month or when the new growth is about a one-half inch long to make my first application. There are a lot of great foods available for roses, so no one brand or type is the best. Dr. Earth is a fabulous, organic fertilizer. Miracle Grow is perfect for those that love to fertilize often and for those that infrequently fertilize like me, there is Osmocote. Osmocote is a time-release fertilizer that is applied every four months. Roses are heavy feeders, so whatever fertilizer you choose, reapply it regularly right through October. You start your rose disease control program starts after pruning. The rose canes are sprayed with Bonide Copper Spray but first strip off any of the remaining leaves and remove all the debris from under the plant(s). Ideally, this is done before the new growth is too far along. This is a preventive measure to remove any of the local sources for the diseases. It sort of sanitizes the area. The spores from Black Spot, Rust, and Mildew, can over-winter in this material. The spores of Rose Rust, Black Spot, and Mildew are airborne, so there is a better than average probability that they’ll return with wet, damp, and rainy conditions. The length of time moisture remains on the leaves after the sun goes down triggers the problems. The damaged leaves show up about ten to eighteen days after being infected. Last spring, the rose diseases were a big problem almost until Mother’s Day, because of the wet spring we had. So applying a rose fungicide to foliage is recommended and again there are a lot of choices. No fungicide will eradicate the diseases, they only control them: hence, depending on the weather, repeat applications must be made until the rainy season concludes. Also, keep in mind to be effective, the fungicide must be on the foliage before the moisture arrives not afterward. This can be challenging with all the other things that can be happening during a week. My solution is Bayer Advanced All in One Rose Care. It feeds my roses, provides a systemic fungicide for six-week control of the rose diseases, and finally as a bonus takes care of the Aphids, Thrips, and Spider Mites. Bayer Advanced All in One Rose Care is available in a liquid, which doesn’t have to be sprayed on the foliage and easy to apply granules. Unfortunately, Bayer All in One Rose Care is not an organic solution, and I only use it in the spring until the rainy season has concluded. You can certainly separate these into individual tasks, but I prefer one and done.  

Buzz Bertolero is an Advance California Certified Nursery Professional. The Dirt Gardener’s website is www.dirtgardener.com and questions can be sent by email tobuzz@dirtgardener.com  or on Facebook at Facebook.com/Buzz.Bertolero

The holiday season has ended. The weather is cold and bleak. The Christmas tree is gone and the lights and décor have been packed up and put away. The only thing to look forward to is the inevitable arrival of bills reflecting the overindulgences of the past few months, and the joy of compiling our 2019 taxes.

Sigh. A dark time of year, to say the least. Before you pull the covers over your head and try to wish it all away, consider this: why not spice up this January with splash of gin?

If there was ever a time for a stiff drink, it is now. Gin has been a favorite of the intellectual set for just about forever. The likes of F. Scott Fitzgerald and Dorothy Parker threw back gin martinis with aplomb, the magic elixir only serving to ignite their creative muses even further. The literary members of New York City’s storied Algonquin Round Table sipped on gin martinis during their famously intellectual literary meetings. Gin is positively historic.

Although the young hipsters of today prefer everything made with vodka, vodka, and more vodka, those of us in the know understand that a gin martini holds more elegance, romance, and sophistication than a mere vodka martini, or “Vodkatini,” if you will, ever could. Gin is the choice of James Bond, so how could that be wrong?

What is gin, you may wonder? Gin’s base is a neutral spirit that can be made from grain, molasses, or potatoes. Grain spirit is the most commonly used today. Gin is in fact, simply flavored vodka. But it’s so much more than that.

To carry the moniker “Gin” there are certain requirements to which to adhere. The spirit must be infused with juniper, first and foremost, as that is gin’s defining flavor. Other botanicals often used include star anise, citrus peel, coriander, angelica, cardamom, orris root, and licorice.

The crafting of fine gin is a thing of beauty involving distillation vapors passing through spices and exotic roots in enormous copper pots. Some gin makers allow their fruits and botanicals to macerate in a neutral spirit before distillation for extra intensity of flavor. Each label has its own recipe and gins may vary wildly in flavor from brand to brand.

In the world of quality gin, each producer creates a revelation of its own, from Hendrick’s Gin’s delicate rose petal and cucumber gin, to smooth Plymouth Gin, to Scotland’s exotic “The Botanist” Gin, to the most intriguing and flamboyant of all, South African Elephant Dung Gin. You think I’m kidding. I’m not.

According to the creators of this award-winning gin, elephants ingest a wonderful array of leaves and flowers, nuts and fruits. As it turns out, most of this potpourri remains undigested as it passes through the elephant. A few intrepid South Africans decided to make use of those pre-mixed flavors, so to speak, and create a uniquely South African Gin. This gin was awarded a double gold medal at South Africa’s Craft Gin Awards, so it is truly something rare and tasty to seek out.

As you navigate the dark months of winter, don’t forget to grab a bottle or two of good gin to sip on a chilly evening. Whether you enjoy your gin in a cocktail, over ice, or neat, you may soon find yourself surrounded by adoring family and friends. Gin is simply irresistible.

Cheers!