There won’t be a parade down Market Street for the Giants this month. In fact, as of this writing they had a good chance to be the first team since the 1998 Marlins to finish last in their division the year after winning the World Series. How did this happen? The Giants returned all their core players besides Aubrey Huff and Ryan Theriot, and they both were minor contributors to the 2012 Championship. And that may be the problem.
In pro sports these days if you stay the same you’re probably losing ground. Yes, centerfielder Angel Pagan got hurt, but he’s just one player and not enough of a difference maker to cause the steep falloff this season. Instead, let’s examine the top players who played most of both seasons with the Giants and see if we can understand what happened.
Matt Cain
| Basically, Cain went from being an ace level pitcher to a replacement level player making $20 million. Injured in August, Cain was 8-8 with a 4.43 ERA for 2013 compared to 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA last year.
Tim Lincecum The Freak has been on a downhill slide ever since he signed a two year, $40 million contract after the 2011 season. This year, even figuring in the no hitter he had on July 13 against San Diego, Lincecum has delivered a below replacement level performance. He is 18-28 over the past two seasons with an ERA of about 5.00. |
Pablo Sandoval
The most important stat about Sandoval, his weight, is only available as an approximation, but suffice to say the Giants are concerned enough that manager Bruce Bochy called him out publicly earlier this season. His performance has suffered in a measurable way. A .297 career hitter who in the past has delivered seasons where he hit .330 and .315, Sandoval this year is hitting .270 and is operating at only about one game above replacement level.
Buster Posey
It may not be fair to compare Posey to a season where he was declared the 2012 MVP, but it shines a light on the decline of his teammates as his RBIs, basically a function of his teammate’s ability to get on base ahead of him, have declined about 30 per cent. His batting average is also down about 35 points.
Barry Zito
What is it about pitchers who draw $20 million annual salaries from the Giants? Everyone’s favorite whipping boy since he signed with the Giants for $126 million over seven years before the 2007 season, he has reached epic lows this year, especially on the road. Away from AT&T Park this year in 13 games totaling 49 innings he is 0-8 with a 9.25 ERA. Opposing hitters are hitting .401 against him (in other words every hitter is Ted Williams in his best year) and slugging at a .600 clip (.500 is considered excellent). The good news is that Zito’s contract is up at the end of the season. The bad news is that the Giants owe him a $7 million buyout of they don’t pick up his $18 million option.
It will be interesting to see what the Giants do for the 2014 season. They have Cain and Posey signed for the next five years but otherwise are relatively flexible. The farm system is barren at the highest levels as the result of deals to aid recent pennant races that led to two World Series Championships in the last three years. Their choice seems to be rebuilding slowly through the draft or spending big bucks on free agents while hoping their core players rebound.
After an unprecedented run the last three years, the party at AT&T Park may be on hold for a while.
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