The San Jose Sharks are at an interesting crossroads. Over the past decade they have been among the league leaders in playoff wins and regular season points, yet they have failed to make the Stanley Cup Finals. Their core group of players has continued to perform well, but as a group is reaching an age where decline is likely to occur. Their coach has the best regular season record in the NHL since his hiring in 2008, but has consistently underachieved in the playoffs. Their general manager has consistently built high-scoring, exciting teams, but now runs the only NHL franchise in California that has not won the Stanley Cup.
Next month teams and players report to training camp for another nine month campaign. The question the Sharks organization faces is whether or not the current group of players can possibly gel into a championship team, or is it time to cut their losses, begin trading core players, and risk some down years in an effort to rebuild another champion.
Such moves are not free. Sharks fans fill HP Pavilion for every home game. This will end once the team begins struggling to win in the regular season. Revenue will decrease, television ratings will decline, and whatever tenuous hold the NHL has on the mindshare of Bay Area sports fans will slip away if the Sharks become a team that begins losing more than half its games and fails to make the playoffs.
Let’s examine some key elements of the current roster. Top defenseman Dan Boyle is 35 and hasn’t made an All Star team in two years. It is unlikely he will improve and likely, considering his age, that whatever marketability he has left will disappear in the next year or so. Captain Joe Thornton is 32, is probably the Sharks’ best player, but suffers from a reputation of never playing quite as well in the playoffs as he does in the regular season. Losing Thornton would hurt in the short run, but the prospects and players he can probably attract might be worth pursuing.
Veteran forward Patrick Marleau is also 32 and has played his entire career with the Sharks. He holds almost every important team scoring record and is probably the fastest skater on the team. Yet, Marleau has become a symbol of team underachievement for many fans. His performance is very erratic with virtual disappearance often following strong play. His long-term, big money contract might be difficult to move, but it says here that the Sharks will probably never hoist the Cup with Marleau holding a prominent position in the lineup.
The real danger for the Sharks would be to keep the aging core together for one last run. The most likely outcome of that strategy would be for too many of them to perform at a level far below their pay and reputation leading to an internal implosion as the team’s record collapses. Each of the last three regular seasons has been worse than the one preceding it, and as key players enter their mid thirties that trend is not likely to change.
Unless the Sharks change their personnel quickly they are likely in for a lengthy free fall followed by a painful rebuilding. The one undefeated performer in team sports is Father Time, and that is who the Sharks are battling now.
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