In a recent conversation, I claimed that some people support Trump because they believe he is more honest than other politicians. To that my debate partner cringed, “What are you talking about? He lies all the time. Practically everything he says is a lie!” He then went on to enumerate Trump’s every exaggeration, misstated phrase, and well-known sins. He then continued by saying the reason he might win again in 2020 is that many American voters have less than a 6th grade education.
I reminded my friend that grade level isn’t a very accurate measure of intelligence; after all, of the four types of intelligence—physical, mental, societal/relationship, and spiritual—one’s grade level is indicative of but a narrow portion of mental smarts. In fact, when it comes to making important decisions, the most “intelligent” option is to do so by tapping all four types of intelligence. I don’t recall ever attending “Advanced Judgment 202” or “Wisdom 101” in school, and it doesn’t matter anyway because we don’t even start learning the language necessary for these important courses until fairly late in the game.
Could Trump’s appeal with some voters have more to do with life experience than “book-learnin’?” Sure, President Trump is a loud-mouthed, egotistical, often insensitive, insecure “sinner” of the highest order—but then again, aren’t we all? Maybe some think a president who publishes a transcript of his conversation with a foreign leader is, perhaps, more trustworthy than one who is caught whispering his real intentions for “after the election.” A wolf in sheep’s clothing is still a wolf. Sometimes it takes years of hearing and seeing wolves and sheep to truly recognize the difference.
Here’s the bottom line on what will happen next: There are only three options.
1) The democrats will be successful and Trump will be ousted, and Mike Pence will be our new President. This option is unlikely because a Senate vote to remove Trump is all but impossible.
2) The election will come and a democrat will win the presidency. Considering the current field of democrat candidates, this too is a long shot. The party is divided philosophically and a majority of voters won’t be backing any of the current democrats. Even many democrats still aren’t socialists—yet.
3) Trump will win a second term. This is the most likely, and he may well win by a greater margin than in 2016. In 2016, Trump was up against a united, well-funded democrat party, the experienced Clinton “machine,” the Republican Establishment, a hostile press, and possibly, even a weaponized prior administration. This time, he has solid republican support, a significant marketing budget, campaign and political experience, and so far, a robust economy as a foundation.
A lot of smart people were really surprised in 2016. Looking back these past three years, maybe they should have looked into why it was that Hillary got only 44% of the votes of the 45+ year-olds when Trump got 52%. Perhaps, instead of dismissing an enormous block of voters as dimwits, had they been more interested in asking some old-timers why they voted the way they did in the last election, things might turn out different than they are likely to again in 2020.
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